1. Introduction — Stable, but Shifting Under the Surface
The labour markets of OECD countries have shown remarkable resilience. Employment and participation rates continue to be at record highs, and unemployment remains historically low. Yet, the new edition of the Employment Outlook raises caution flags: growth is slowing, labour-market tightness is receding in many sectors, and demographic headwinds are growing. OECD+2OECD+2
The report emphasises that the world of work is being transformed: demographic ageing, generative artificial intelligence (AI), digitalisation, and climate transitions are converging to reshape jobs, skills, productivity and social cohesion. OECD+1
2. Key Trends & Findings
Labour Markets Remain Resilient, But There Are Early Signs of Slowdown
- The working-age employment rate and participation in many OECD countries reached new highs, yet employment growth is decelerating. OECD+1
- Labour-market tightness—how hard it is to fill vacancies and find workers—has reduced somewhat from pandemic peaks and in some sectors returned to pre-COVID levels. OECD+1
- Real wages are growing in almost all OECD countries, but there is significant variation and many countries still have catch-up to do. OECD+1
Ageing Workforce & Productivity
A notable focus of this edition is on the demographic transition: declining working-age population, rising old-age dependency ratios, and the implications for GDP per capita, productivity growth and job-market structure. OECD+1
The report warns that without decisive policy action, population ageing will dampen growth and put pressure on living standards, unless untapped labour resources (older workers, women, migrants) are mobilised. OECD
Untapped Labour Resources
Mobilising groups that have historically lower employment rates—such as older workers, women, migrants—and removing barriers to job-to-job mobility are central themes. Investments in lifelong learning, flexible work arrangements and re-skilling are highlighted as essential. OECD
The Rise of AI, Digital & Green Transitions
Although this report emphasises demographics, it also underscores that technology (especially generative-AI), connectivity, digitalisation and the green transition will influence labour markets profoundly. The interplay between these forces—and how they impact jobs, skills and productivity—is highlighted as a major policy concern. OECD+1
3. Implications for Workers & Employers
For Workers
- Lifelong learning is not optional. As jobs evolve, older workers and those currently in stable roles need continuous investment in their skills. Without doing so, they risk being left behind.
- Mobility and adaptability matter more than ever: moving between jobs, industries or tasks will become more common.
- Inclusion of under-represented groups provides major opportunity: participation of women, older workers and migrants will shape both individual outcomes and national labour-market health.
For Employers & Policymakers
- Traditional workforce models need redesigning. Employers must accommodate ageing workforces, create pathways for older employee retention, and integrate digital skills at all levels.
- Policy frameworks must evolve to support labour-market participation across age, gender and origin, promote job-to-job transitions, and ensure that technological change does not leave large cohorts behind.
- The intertwined challenges of digitalisation, climate change, ageing and global competition require coordinated strategies: for example, investing in infrastructure, supporting digital adoption, and ensuring that productivity gains translate into wage growth and broad-based employment.
4. What to Watch & What to Act On
- Slowing employment growth: Even though employment remains high, the pace of growth is decelerating—this limits job creation and may amplify inequalities.
- Productivity-wage disconnect: While real wages are rising, in many places they still lag productivity improvements or pre-pandemic levels.
- Demographics as constraint: As the workforce shrinks in many countries and age-dependency ratios rise, economic growth and job creation will face structural limits unless policy interventions succeed.
- Technology & job structure change: Generative-AI, automation and digital platforms may shift the demand for tasks and reshape occupations—requiring strategic preparation by workers and firms.
- Inclusion and participation: The ability to draw in under-utilised labour pools—older workers, women, migrants—will determine how well economies adapt to structural change.
5. Conclusion
The Employment Outlook 2025 is a call to action. It says that while current labour-market conditions are strong, the future won’t look the same unless we adapt. Ageing populations, slowing employment growth, evolving job-skills demands and technological disruption all converge to demand strategic responses from governments, firms and workers alike.
Success will depend on how effectively economies mobilise under-used labour resources, design labour-market policies and employer practices for the future, and invest in the skills and adaptability of the workforce. Those who act with foresight, flexibility and inclusiveness will not only safeguard employment and growth—but help shape a more resilient, dynamic future of work.
In short: The next phase of work is less about returning to “normal” and more about transforming how work happens, who participates, and what it produces.
